← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Wind AlliesTier 2
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 11 | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 12 | 2-9-1 | 20.8% | 28.1% | 27.2% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 67.1% | +8.6 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 58.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.8% | -2.4 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -11.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 61.2% | +6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.7% | -5.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |