← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
RogueTier 1
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
5
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
14-14-4
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1340
· median 1354
· range 1160–1464
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |