← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Water AlliesTier 1
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 27.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 66.7% | +8.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.4% | +4.8 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 75.7% | +16.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |