← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-9-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.4%
avg ELO -9.2 per match
expected value
40.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1200–1270
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -5.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -18.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
