← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
4
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
9-9-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368
· median 1323
· range 1292–1532
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 69.5% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 24.3% | -16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
