← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire EruptingTier 2
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
3
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-11-1
overall winrate
36.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.8%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1241
· median 1232
· range 1196–1296
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 38.8% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.8 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 21.4% | -18.3 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.1% | +17.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
