← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 12 | 9-2-1 | 79.2% | 71.9% | 72.8% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 11 | 4-5-2 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.4% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 63.8% | +7.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 72.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 23.8% | -14.0 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +18.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Spurn to Ash, Stalwart Shieldmate. Losers more often ran: Gawain, Chivalrous Thief.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |