← SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
Fire LorraineTier 2
at SEA Nationals at Agora Hobby
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
8-6-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.7%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1225–1331
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1250
Q3 1450
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.3% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.6% | -9.2 |
| Rogue | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
