Fire AggroTier 1
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
33
(7.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
294
143-143-8
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1317
· range 1065–1610
(33 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 77 | 41-35-1 | 53.9% | 53.7% | 57.1% | +2.4 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 37 | 18-19-0 | 48.6% | 48.8% | 59.5% | +3.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 30 | 14-15-1 | 48.3% | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 17 | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 40.5% | 44.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 23 | 10-12-1 | 45.7% | 46.3% | 46.3% | -1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 18 | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 59.1% | 61.5% | +4.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 19 | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 37.0% | 37.7% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.9% | +1.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 73.3% | +11.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 64.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 57.6% | +4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 54.5% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 35.2% | -7.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 33 from this event
The 33 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Viridian Protective Trinket, Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster. Losers more often ran: Veteran Blazebearer, Lurking Assailant, Nullifying Lantern.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Innervate Fury
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Focused Flames
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Veteran Blazebearer
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Lurking Assailant
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Penetrator Round
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Trained Sharpshooter
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 96 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 76 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.38 | 7 | 2 | 4 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.38 | 2 | 7 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.38 | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.31 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.23 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 5 | |
| Backstep | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 9 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |