← Ascent Kuala Lumpur

Water FractalTier 1

at Ascent Kuala Lumpur

decks
91 (20.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
724 376-286-62
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9% avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
55.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317 · median 1304 · range 1023–1624 (91 pilots with an ELO rating)
905 Q1 1184 Q3 1396 1730
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Genbu 9.8% 99 49-42-8 53.5% 53.4% 58.1% +2.7
Wind Allies 9.4% 73 40-30-3 56.8% 56.5% 56.6% +2.2
Wind Astra Cleric 8.2% 95 50-32-13 59.5% 59.1% 64.1% +4.7
Fire Aggro 7.6% 77 35-41-1 46.1% 46.3% 42.9% -2.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.2% 56 34-14-8 67.9% 66.7% 73.8% +8.2
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 62 27-28-7 49.2% 49.2% 51.8% +0.6
Wind Seiryuu 5.5% 57 29-24-4 54.4% 54.1% 55.9% +2.0
Fire Suzaku 4.3% 31 18-12-1 59.7% 58.6% 55.1% +1.8
Wind Luxem Zander 2.7% 19 5-9-5 39.5% 41.3% 51.8% +0.7
Fire Exia 2.1% 16 9-5-2 62.5% 60.0% 55.2% +2.1
Fire Seiryuu 2.1% 11 6-4-1 59.1% 56.7% 54.7% +2.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.8% 13 6-6-1 50.0% 50.0% 56.2% +2.6
Water Ravishing Mill 1.6% 19 8-10-1 44.7% 45.7% 58.5% +3.3
Fire Crux Mage 1.4% 11 8-3-0 72.7% 66.7% 69.9% +8.7
Slimes 1.1% 7 5-2-0 71.4% 63.6% 69.1% +9.6
Water Allies 1.1% 9 7-1-1 83.3% 73.1% 76.0% +12.0
Fire Arcane 0.9% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 73.6% +12.6
Fire Byakko 0.7% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 73.3% +13.4
Wind Byakko 0.7% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 62.4% +6.6
Wind Razorgale 0.7% 7 4-1-2 71.4% 63.6% 61.2% +5.6
Fire Astra Cleric 0.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 66.0% +25.6
Fire Crux Hybrid 0.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.4% +2.3
Fire Slimes 0.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 32.6% -13.0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 0.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.1
Water Astra Cleric 0.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 27.1% -22.0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.5% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 78.0% +20.9
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.5% 0 — — — — —
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 0.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Fire Crux Lorraine 0.2% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 74.9% +13.3
Fire Crux Merlin 0.2% 0 — — — — —
Fire Dawn of Ashes 0.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.3% +10.8
Fire Polkhawk 0.2% 0 — — — — —
Fire Tera Cleric 0.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.2% +19.6
Water Crux Mage 0.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.0% -14.4
Water Luxem Zander 0.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 54.2% +4.1
Water Overlord 0.2% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 28.4% -16.2
Water Tera Mage 0.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.5% +21.6
Wind Crux Mage 0.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.0% +19.2
Wind Diana 0.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.8% -6.9
Wind Diao Chan 0.2% 0 — — — — —
Wind Exia 0.2% 0 — — — — —
Wind Luxem Guo Jia 0.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.2% +13.6
Wind Neos 0.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +0.8
Wind Neos Tonoris 0.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.5
Wind Overlord 0.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 57.1% +5.3
Wind Slice & Dice 0.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 42.1% -5.0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.2% 0 — — — — —
Decklists · 91 from this event

The 91 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 85 mirror matches (5 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 17 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Fractal of Snow, Quicksilver Grail. Losers more often ran: Extricating Touch, Frostbind, Acquiescing Rejection.

↑ Played more by winners
Unstable Fractal
Unstable Fractal
Winning decks ran 3.4 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 38, the loser ran more in 15, both ran the same in 32.
Fractal of Snow
Fractal of Snow
Winning decks ran 3.9 copies on average, losing decks 3.6.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 15, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 66.
Quicksilver Grail
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 28, the loser ran more in 19, both ran the same in 38.
Lost in Thought Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 32, the loser ran more in 24, both ran the same in 29.
Diao Chan, Enchantress
Diao Chan, Enchantress
Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 16, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 60.
Frozen Dismissal
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.
Of 85 mirrors: the winner ran more in 23, the loser ran more in 16, both ran the same in 46.
↓ Played more by losers
Extricating Touch
Extricating Touch
Losing decks ran 1.1 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 36, the winner ran more in 21, both ran the same in 28.
Frostbind
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 33, the winner ran more in 24, both ran the same in 28.
Acquiescing Rejection
Acquiescing Rejection
Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 15, the winner ran more in 9, both ran the same in 61.
Frostsworn Paladin
Frostsworn Paladin
Losing decks ran 3.8 copies on average, winning decks 3.7.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 17, the winner ran more in 11, both ran the same in 57.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 17, the winner ran more in 12, both ran the same in 56.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 85 mirrors: the loser ran more in 19, the winner ran more in 15, both ran the same in 51.
Show all 114 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 94 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Unstable Fractal +0.27 38 15 32
Extricating Touch -0.18 21 36 8
Fractal of Snow +0.13 15 4 66
Frostbind -0.11 24 33 15
Quicksilver Grail +0.11 28 19 14
Lost in Thought +0.09 32 24 6
Diao Chan, Enchantress +0.08 16 9 59
Frozen Dismissal +0.08 23 16 1
Acquiescing Rejection -0.07 9 15 0
Frostsworn Paladin -0.07 11 17 57
Tariff Ring +0.07 12 6 67
Scepter of Fascination +0.06 16 11 56
Grand Crusader's Ring -0.06 12 17 54
Burst Asunder +0.06 8 3 74
Snow Fairy -0.06 5 10 0
Crystalline Mirror +0.05 4 0 81
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.05 15 19 42
Automated Gardener +0.05 11 7 0
Censer of Restful Peace +0.05 25 21 31
Resolute Stand +0.05 13 9 0
Ardent Cloudstriker -0.05 0 4 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.04 19 22 40
Fractal of Refreshment +0.04 27 24 32
Wand of Frost -0.04 14 17 9
Huaji of Heaven's Rise -0.04 0 3 0
Sweet Ambrosia -0.04 0 3 0
Shangxiang, Fierce Princess -0.04 0 3 0
Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster -0.04 0 3 0
Sun Quan, Sealbearer -0.04 0 3 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.04 0 3 0
Rotund Squirrel +0.04 3 0 0
Song of Frost -0.02 22 24 14
Staggering Strike -0.02 21 23 8
Chill to the Bone -0.02 16 18 7
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition +0.02 30 28 12
Fracturize +0.02 3 1 81
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.02 21 23 29
Disenchant +0.02 24 22 4
Water Resonance Bauble -0.02 17 19 25
Novice Healer +0.02 7 5 0
Cleric Robes +0.02 3 1 1
Orb of Regret -0.02 0 2 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.02 6 8 0
Deep Sea Fractal -0.02 4 6 0
Cerulean Decree -0.02 2 4 0
Blinding Orb +0.02 4 2 0
Allied Warpriestess -0.02 1 3 0
Torpid Fractal +0.01 9 8 0
Shimmering Refraction -0.01 0 1 84
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel -0.01 17 18 3
Backup Charger +0.01 4 3 78
Awakened Deacon -0.01 6 7 0
Fast Cure -0.01 21 22 41
Fractal of Intrusion +0.01 20 19 1
Fractal of Insight +0.01 2 1 82
Glimmering Refusal -0.01 0 1 84
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.01 26 25 30
Mystic Purifier -0.01 1 2 0
Captivating Opulence +0.01 10 9 0
Portentous Tanggu -0.01 22 23 24
Dissuading Halt -0.01 2 3 0
Diablerie +0.01 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +0.01 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +0.01 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +0.01 1 0 0
Gentle Respite +0.01 1 0 0
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer +0.01 1 0 0
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin +0.01 1 0 0
Scepter of Lumina +0.01 1 0 0
Vanitas, Dominus Rex +0.01 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +0.01 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +0.01 1 0 0
Water Barrier +0.01 3 2 0
Art of War -0.01 5 6 0
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish +0.01 6 5 2
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.01 2 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.01 6 7 0
Wildheart Lyre +0.01 2 1 0
Eventide Lure +0.01 1 0 0
Glimmer Essence Amulet +0.01 1 0 0
Fractal of Mana -0.01 1 2 0
Nascent Blast +0.01 2 1 0
Reprogram +0.01 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -0.01 1 2 0
Cell Converter -0.01 1 2 0
Rimesoul Bishop -0.01 1 2 0
Bulwark Sword +0.01 1 0 0
Chilling Touch -0.01 1 2 0
Fractal of Polar Depths -0.01 0 1 0
Peaceful Reunion -0.01 0 1 0
Hydroguard Retainer -0.01 0 1 0
Fan of Seven Debts -0.01 0 1 0
Kongming, Wayward Maven -0.01 0 1 0
Coriolis Ward -0.01 0 1 0
Channeling Stone +0.01 1 0 0
Glacial Evocation -0.01 0 1 0
Austere Priestess -0.01 0 1 0
Orb of Hubris +0.01 1 0 0
Fractal of Rain +0.00 1 1 83
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +0.00 5 5 75
Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron +0.00 15 15 6
Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy +0.00 15 15 6
Spirit of Water +0.00 1 1 83
Ingredient Pouch +0.00 15 15 6
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 2 2 81
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.00 18 18 16
Arisanna, Master Alchemist +0.00 7 7 2
Smoke Bombs +0.00 2 2 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +0.00 3 3 0
Expel the Departed +0.00 2 2 0
Fragmented Spirit of Water +0.00 1 1 0
Tidal Lock +0.00 2 2 0
Acolyte of Cultivation +0.00 1 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/23830/archetypes/Water Fractal