Water GenbuTier 1
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
43
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
380
192-151-37
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1366
· median 1382
· range 941–1688
(43 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
42% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 99 | 42-49-8 | 46.5% | 46.6% | 41.9% | -2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 39 | 22-13-4 | 61.5% | 60.5% | 56.1% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 43 | 24-14-5 | 61.6% | 60.6% | 66.5% | +5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 37 | 19-18-0 | 51.4% | 51.2% | 40.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 20 | 11-7-2 | 60.0% | 58.3% | 52.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 23 | 8-9-6 | 47.8% | 48.1% | 47.5% | -0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 25 | 12-10-3 | 54.0% | 53.4% | 47.0% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 11 | 4-4-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -1.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 63.0% | +7.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 72.8% | +12.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 67.9% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 35.9% | -7.5 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.0% | +10.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 61.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 43 from this event
The 43 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
EnochLok123
-
Reap0
-
Raypig
-
DuoDuo
-
Nazy
-
IvanTan
-
Long
-
Boy
-
Zetdivx
-
Quarax
-
Justinljw
-
727
-
tko
-
MashiroTofuu
-
LZiM
-
dlonyer
-
GAManiac
-
Frosted
-
AlsonSoh
-
Synx
-
Conman
-
pointHERE
-
Alex0916
-
gh1
-
CHOCO
-
Sun
-
Hamyuzai
-
Polaris
-
wenwen
-
YingJie
-
Seazar
-
Noct
-
Moca
-
LunaMagnarm
-
Lsentinel
-
Kee
-
victorhk
-
Fatpig
-
Kenixon
-
KH1730
-
Shane
-
baitianlong
-
Zefier
Mirror Analysis
In 22 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Pelagic Fatestone, Grand Crusader's Ring, Tabula of Salvage. Losers more often ran: Chilling Touch, Rippleback Terrapin, Viridian Protective Trinket.
Pelagic Fatestone
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
16, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
10, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Tabula of Salvage
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 16.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 5.
Resonating Fugue
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 11.
Strategem of Myriad Ice
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 22 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Chilling Touch
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 13.
Rippleback Terrapin
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 8.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 8.
Aqueous Stallion
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Glacial Evocation
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 22 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 83 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.59 | 16 | 3 | 3 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.41 | 0 | 9 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.32 | 10 | 3 | 8 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.27 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.27 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.27 | 2 | 8 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.23 | 11 | 6 | 5 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.23 | 4 | 9 | 3 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.23 | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.23 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.23 | 9 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.23 | 10 | 5 | 7 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.18 | 7 | 3 | 11 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.18 | 5 | 1 | 16 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.18 | 4 | 8 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.14 | 5 | 8 | 9 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.14 | 9 | 6 | 7 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 2 | 5 | 15 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.14 | 5 | 2 | 15 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.14 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.09 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.09 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.09 | 10 | 8 | 2 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.09 | 9 | 7 | 6 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.09 | 6 | 4 | 11 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.09 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.09 | 7 | 9 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 18 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Frostbind | -0.09 | 5 | 7 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.09 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.09 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.09 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.09 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swooping Talons | -0.09 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 15 | |
| Fracturize | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 21 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Giant Tortoise | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dynasty Chancellor | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissonant Fractal | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Think Deep | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Genbu's Command | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Sunken Past | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluvial Fatestone | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fishing Accident | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Exorcist | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Submerged Fatestone | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 4 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 20 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Floating Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |