Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 31 | 12-18-1 | 40.3% | 41.4% | 44.9% | -1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 18 | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 69.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.1% | -1.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 15 | 7-8-0 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 53.0% | +1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 16 | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 30.0% | 31.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 11 | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 31.3% | -8.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 51.0% | +0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.7% | -6.2 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.6% | +16.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.9 |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |