Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
27
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
232
107-106-19
overall winrate
50.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1305
· median 1284
· range 1032–1642
(27 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 56 | 14-34-8 | 32.1% | 33.3% | 26.2% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 20 | 7-11-2 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 47.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 26 | 16-8-2 | 65.4% | 63.3% | 58.9% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 20 | 9-8-3 | 52.5% | 52.1% | 54.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 23 | 12-10-1 | 54.3% | 53.7% | 53.7% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 15 | 9-5-1 | 63.3% | 60.5% | 64.8% | +6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 48.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 47.0% | -1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +4.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.8% | +26.9 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 67.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 32.8% | -12.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.3% | -23.7 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +14.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.4% | -22.7 |
Decklists · 27 from this event
The 27 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Gentle Respite, Vanish from Sight, Striking Illuminance. Losers more often ran: Turbo Charge, Tariff Ring, Staggering Strike.
Gentle Respite
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Vanish from Sight
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Striking Illuminance
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Exploit Vulnerability
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turbo Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |