Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
27
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
247
120-106-21
overall winrate
52.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1319
· range 905–1538
(27 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
7% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 62 | 28-27-7 | 50.8% | 50.8% | 48.2% | -0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 23 | 9-8-6 | 52.2% | 51.9% | 52.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 20 | 11-8-1 | 57.5% | 56.2% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 23 | 7-14-2 | 34.8% | 37.0% | 36.2% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 18 | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 40.9% | 38.5% | -4.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 15 | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 39.5% | 35.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 15 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 16 | 12-4-0 | 75.0% | 70.0% | 68.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 59.5% | +4.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 78.7% | +16.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.7% | -4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 61.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.0% | +11.2 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | +26.3 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
Decklists · 27 from this event
The 27 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Morgan, Soul Guide, Reclaim, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Innervate Agility, Turbo Charge.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Verdigris Decree
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Malignant Athame | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Diablerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extortion Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |