Wind Umbra TristanTier 3
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Umbra Tristan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Emergent Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloaked Executioner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |