Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Ascent Kuala Lumpur
decks
4
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
8-21-1
overall winrate
28.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.6%
avg ELO -5.2 per match
expected value
37.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1166
· median 1103
· range 1095–1364
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1396
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 26.4% | -12.6 |
| Water Genbu | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.8% | -15.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.2% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -7.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.4% | -16.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 81.4% | +20.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
