Fire AggroTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
20
(16.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
139
60-71-8
overall winrate
46.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.8%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1350
· median 1374
· range 1033–1563
(20 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
10% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
30% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 22 | 5-14-3 | 29.5% | 32.7% | 40.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 46.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 24 | 14-10-0 | 58.3% | 57.1% | 60.9% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 15 | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 39.5% | 36.9% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 15 | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 48.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 43.6% | -2.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.6% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.6% | +14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 72.7% | +14.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +4.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
Decklists · 20 from this event
The 20 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Water Resonance Bauble, Sword of Adversity. Losers more often ran: Deflecting Edge, Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper, Nullifying Mirror.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Adversity
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Fiery Momentum
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Clumsy Apprentice
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 94 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | -0.44 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Reprogram | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Kongming, Erudite Strategist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Solar Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ritai Berserker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |