Water GenbuTier 1
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
11
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
88
46-31-11
overall winrate
58.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1414
· median 1424
· range 1255–1694
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 15 | 9-5-1 | 63.3% | 60.5% | 63.1% | +5.3 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 13 | 6-5-2 | 53.8% | 52.9% | 62.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 16 | 3-9-4 | 31.2% | 35.0% | 31.8% | -7.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 55.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 8 | 7-0-1 | 93.8% | 79.2% | 84.1% | +16.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.3% | +15.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.1% | +18.0 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Tabula of Salvage, Frozen Dismissal. Losers more often ran: Staggering Strike, Song of Frost, Primordial Ritual.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tabula of Salvage
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tideholder Claymore
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Mirror
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Primordial Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Aqueous Stallion
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Swooping Talons | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Sunken Past | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 |