Water FractalTier 1
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
18
(14.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
134
67-48-19
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
55.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1460
· median 1500
· range 1223–1678
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 22 | 14-5-3 | 70.5% | 67.3% | 60.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 28 | 16-9-3 | 62.5% | 60.9% | 53.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 19 | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 45.7% | 44.4% | -2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 13 | 5-6-2 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 37.4% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 19 | 7-7-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.4% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.4% | -8.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 45.8% | -2.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 71.5% | +34.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -16.2 |
Decklists · 18 from this event
The 18 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Fractal of Intrusion, Captivating Opulence. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Fractal of Refreshment, Tariff Ring.
Unstable Fractal
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Captivating Opulence
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Wand of Frost
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Chill to the Bone
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.60 | 1 | 7 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.40 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 4 | 6 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.10 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |