Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
4
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
14-11-3
overall winrate
55.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1432
· median 1406
· range 1225–1689
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.9 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.6% | +8.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 35.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.8% | +8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.1% | +12.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
