Water AlliesTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.7%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
55.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1584
· median 1584
· range 1584–1584
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 28.5% | -34.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.5% | -29.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
