Fire ExiaTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-8-2
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1383–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.4% | +7.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
