Fire SuzakuTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.4% | -14.7 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -5.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 43.5% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.7% | -15.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.7% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 66.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -3.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beastbond Paws | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |