Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at OCE Nationals 2025
decks
4
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
8-12-6
overall winrate
42.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.6%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1301
· median 1313
· range 1172–1408
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1305
Q3 1495
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +18.4 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.9% | -20.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.8% | -18.0 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 25.5% | -23.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
