Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at OCE Nationals 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.1% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 56.4% | +2.9 |
| Water Fractal | 14.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.9% | -3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 55.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 34.6% | -8.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.5% | +24.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.9% | -12.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 74.5% | +23.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |