← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire AggroTier 1
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 18 | 11-6-1 | 63.9% | 61.4% | 66.0% | +6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 41.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 72.6% | +14.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 83.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 77.1% | +26.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 67 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |