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Wind SeiryuuTier 2

at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!

decks
4 (3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 9-13-5
overall winrate
42.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2% avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
49.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324 · median 1344 · range 1135–1471 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002 Q1 1194 Q3 1417 1648
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.5% 10 4-4-2 50.0% 50.0% 52.8% +1.2
Fire Crux Mage 11.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.4% -0.5
Wind Shadowstrike 8.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.3% +5.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.2
Fire Exia 5.7% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 51.7% +1.6
Fire Suited 5.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.3% +6.9
Fire Aggro 4.9% 0
Fire Suzaku 4.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Wind Allies 4.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.4
Fire Oblation 3.3% 0
Fire Slimes 3.3% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.2% -20.4
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.5% 0
Water Fractal 2.5% 0
Water Tera Mage 2.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.8
Wind Astra Cleric 2.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.9% -13.0
Fire Byakko 1.6% 0
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.6% 0
Water Genbu 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.6% -3.9
Fire Arcane 0.8% 0
Fire Neos 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 0.8% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Allies 0.8% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.8% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.8% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.8% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.1
Wind Arcane 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Wind Astra Diana 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.8% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Harness Lightning +1.00 2 0 0
Horned Knight -0.50 0 1 0
Longtail Grovesward +0.50 1 0 0
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 1
Displace +0.50 1 0 0
Scout the Land -0.50 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer +0.50 1 0 1
Purifying Thurible +0.50 1 0 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 1
Scavenging Raccoon -0.50 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.50 1 0 0
Brisk Windtrotter +0.50 1 0 1
Byakko's Command -0.50 0 1 1
Annul Spell -0.50 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 1
Seiryuu's Command -0.50 0 1 1
Reclaim -0.50 0 1 0
Sunblessed Gazelle +0.50 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Bestial Frenzy +0.50 1 0 0
Spellward Scepter +0.50 1 0 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.00 1 1 0
Resolute Stand +0.00 1 1 0
Trained Hawk +0.00 1 1 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31417/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu