← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire NeosTier 3
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
41.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1271
· range 1271–1271
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
