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Fire SuzakuTier 1

at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!

decks
6 (4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38 20-18-0
overall winrate
52.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.3% avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
50.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1239 · median 1160 · range 1049–1480 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002 Q1 1194 Q3 1417 1648
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 67% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 52.5% 15 8-7-0 53.3% 52.6% 56.9% +2.8
Fire Crux Mage 11.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.4% +5.2
Wind Shadowstrike 8.2% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 36.2% -10.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.6% 0
Fire Exia 5.7% 0
Fire Suited 5.7% 0
Fire Aggro 4.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.1
Wind Allies 4.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.7% +12.3
Fire Oblation 3.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.6% +13.1
Fire Slimes 3.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.4% +6.2
Wind Seiryuu 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.7% -8.5
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.7% +12.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.5% 0
Water Fractal 2.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.5% +16.8
Water Tera Mage 2.5% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.4% -10.2
Fire Byakko 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.5% +2.4
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.3% -15.1
Water Aetherwing 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.7
Water Genbu 1.6% 0
Fire Arcane 0.8% 0
Fire Neos 0.8% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 0.8% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Allies 0.8% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.8% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.8% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.8% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 0.8% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.0% +22.4
Wind Arcane 0.8% 0
Wind Astra Diana 0.8% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Vermilion Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Rile the Abyss +1.00 1 0 0
Embercrypt Burn +1.00 1 0 0
Undying Dreams +1.00 1 0 0
Relic of Dancing Embers +1.00 1 0 0
Suited Trickery -1.00 0 1 0
Beastsoul Visage -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Intensified Pyre -1.00 0 1 0
Three of Hearts +1.00 1 0 0
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored -1.00 0 1 0
Demolition +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Peppered Chef +1.00 1 0 0
Vengeful Paramour +1.00 1 0 0
Advent of the Shenju -1.00 0 1 0
Fabled Emerald Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight +1.00 1 0 0
Broken Promises -1.00 0 1 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call +1.00 1 0 0
Primal Whip -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Incandescent Reliquary -1.00 0 1 0
Shatter the Brittle +1.00 1 0 0
Royal Ordinance -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Suzaku's Command -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/31417/archetypes/Fire Suzaku