← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire ExiaTier 2
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
7
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
53
20-29-4
overall winrate
41.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1283
· median 1280
· range 1163–1528
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 21 | 9-12-0 | 42.9% | 44.0% | 53.7% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 62.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
