← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Water FractalTier 2
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
3
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
7-19-0
overall winrate
26.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.1%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
41.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1174
· median 1124
· range 1042–1356
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
