← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 38 | 19-17-2 | 52.6% | 52.4% | 50.4% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 40.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 53.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Cremation Ritual. Losers more often ran: Duplicitous Replication, Heavenly Guide, Sword of Shadows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Galed Erasure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |