← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
8
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
86
50-33-3
overall winrate
59.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
55.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1487
· median 1470
· range 1325–1642
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 27 | 15-12-0 | 55.6% | 54.8% | 47.2% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 46.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 27.4% | -14.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.7% | -1.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
