← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
3
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
9-24-0
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
33.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
37.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1190
· median 1204
· range 1154–1211
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 13 | 3-10-0 | 23.1% | 29.4% | 34.5% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
