← Card's village Hong Kong regional

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card's village Hong Kong regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 4 4.0% 22 68.2% 55.4% 55.4% 50.8% 1329
2 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 1.0% 6 66.7% 54.2% 54.7% 51.9% 1233 ↓ low
3 Wind Razorgale 2 2.0% 12 50.0% 44.7% 54.4% 53.3% 1409 ↑ top
4 Water Genbu 6 6.0% 36 61.1% 62.5% 54.3% 55.1% 1275
5 Fire Crux Lorraine 7 7.0% 40 53.8% 54.4% 53.4% 53.7% 1276
6 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 1.0% 6 50.0% 50.3% 52.9% 52.4% 1333
7 Water Fractal 4 4.0% 20 50.0% 48.6% 52.1% 50.8% 1274
8 Wind Seiryuu 11 11.0% 56 52.7% 55.6% 51.4% 53.0% 1345 ↑ top
9 Fire Suzaku 5 5.0% 32 57.8% 51.9% 51.1% 48.9% 1337
10 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 1.0% 6 58.3% 58.0% 50.9% 52.4% 1259
11 Fire Byakko 1 1.0% 6 33.3% 32.3% 49.9% 46.0% 1311
12 Fire Arcane 2 2.0% 11 45.5% 42.7% 49.7% 47.1% 1268
13 Wind Crux Lorraine 2 2.0% 11 50.0% 42.5% 49.0% 45.9% 1423 ↑ top
14 Water Umbra Guardian 5 5.0% 25 56.0% 54.0% 47.5% 48.1% 1354 ↑ top
15 Water Aetherwing 8 8.0% 42 42.9% 54.4% 45.9% 51.2% 1236
16 Water Allies 2 2.0% 7 35.7% 44.1% 45.7% 46.8% 1163 ↓ low
17 Fire Crux Mage 13 13.0% 64 43.8% 43.8% 44.7% 44.9% 1259
18 Water Crux Mage 1 1.0% 6 41.7% 47.8% 44.3% 47.2% 1338
19 Fire Slimes 3 3.0% 15 33.3% 41.8% 44.3% 46.7% 1174 ↓ low
20 Wind Luxem Zander 1 1.0% 6 25.0% 37.9% 44.2% 44.9% 1126 ↓ low
21 Wind Shadowstrike 7 7.0% 37 35.1% 39.4% 41.9% 43.6% 1194 ↓ low
22 Wind Astra Cleric 1 1.0% 1 0.0% 40.9% 40.0% 40.9% 1186 ↓ low
23 Fire Suited 3 3.0% 14 14.3% 23.9% 38.7% 38.9% 1155 ↓ low
24 Water Ravishing Mill 1 1.0% 6 25.0% 44.5% 38.6% 43.3% 1308
25 Fire Crux Merlin 2 2.0% 7 7.1% 25.4% 38.4% 38.5% 1140 ↓ low