Fire AggroTier 2
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 47.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 37.0% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.4% | -14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 38.8% | -5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.3% | +5.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.5% | -19.7 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |