Water AlliesTier 2
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
decks
5
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
12-12-8
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1182
· median 1149
· range 905–1495
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1205
Q3 1376
1633
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
60% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 62.4% | +8.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 4 | 1-0-3 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.7% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 52.1% | +1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
