Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
decks
22
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
120
48-52-20
overall winrate
48.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1322
· range 1130–1472
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1205
Q3 1376
1633
9% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 22 | 9-6-7 | 56.8% | 55.8% | 56.8% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 22 | 7-13-2 | 36.4% | 38.5% | 41.2% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 9 | 2-5-2 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 36.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.1% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.2% | -0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 64.0% | +7.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.7% | +5.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.0% | -20.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 22 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Scatter Essence, Reclaim, Aesan Protector. Losers more often ran: Winds of Destiny, Scout the Land, Beseech the Winds.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Forest Cake
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Windmill Engineer
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Winds of Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Scout the Land
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Beseech the Winds
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 0.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winds of Destiny | -0.44 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Reclaim | +0.22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cure the Flesh | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.11 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bathe in Light | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Art of War | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Harness Lightning | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Byakko's Command | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |