Fire SuzakuTier 1
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 9 | 2-7-0 | 22.2% | 30.8% | 36.4% | -6.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.9% | +8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 61.2% | +5.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 35.2% | -7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.4% | +7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 62.6% | +8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.6% | -11.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.0% | -12.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.1% | -18.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Liminal Guide. Losers more often ran: Cinder Geyser, Three of Hearts, Flamewreath Call.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |