Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
decks
30
(14.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
177
95-61-21
overall winrate
59.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1037–1624
(30 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1205
Q3 1376
1633
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
13% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 36 | 18-15-3 | 54.2% | 53.8% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 22 | 13-7-2 | 63.6% | 61.5% | 58.8% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 63.0% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 16 | 7-8-1 | 46.9% | 47.5% | 43.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 69.2% | 63.6% | +6.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 8 | 4-1-3 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 56.2% | +3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 9 | 5-1-3 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 60.9% | +5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 41.6% | -4.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 37.6% | -8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +2.9 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 40.3% | -5.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 78.9% | +21.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.6 |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
Decklists · 30 from this event
The 30 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Flame Sweep, Surreptitious Scheme. Losers more often ran: Escape the Wreckage, Crux Sight, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Honorable Vanguard
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Surreptitious Scheme
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Escape the Wreckage
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Devastating Blow
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.46 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.46 | 2 | 8 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 6 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.38 | 0 | 5 | 6 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.31 | 3 | 7 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 7 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 6 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom's Divide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nefarious Timepiece | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |