Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
decks
31
(14.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
186
81-79-26
overall winrate
50.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1313
· range 1091–1563
(31 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1205
Q3 1376
1633
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
16% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 36 | 15-18-3 | 45.8% | 46.2% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 22 | 6-9-7 | 43.2% | 44.2% | 43.2% | -2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 52.7% | +1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 11 | 8-1-2 | 81.8% | 73.3% | 66.1% | +7.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 48.8% | -0.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 13 | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 52.9% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 37.7% | -5.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 32.7% | -9.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -8.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 80.2% | +22.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 31 from this event
The 31 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Cremation Ritual, Safeguard Amulet. Losers more often ran: Staggering Strike, Reduce to Ash, Hasty Messenger.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Safeguard Amulet
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Smoke Out
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Immolation Trap
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 8.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | -0.38 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.23 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 4 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slay the King | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bandage Wound | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rising Tides | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |