Water AetherwingTier 1
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 11 | 1-8-2 | 18.2% | 26.7% | 33.9% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 16 | 8-7-1 | 53.1% | 52.5% | 56.4% | +2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 9 | 5-2-2 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 64.0% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.6% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 64.8% | +7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.9% | -2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |