Water GenbuTier 2
at DX DTR Regionals Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.6% | 13 | 6-7-0 | 46.2% | 47.1% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.8% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.1% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.6% | -7.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.7% | +8.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 4 | 0-1-3 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Fire Suited | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.8% | -6.0 |
| Water Fractal | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Genbu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rotund Squirrel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |