EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Tainan Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 1.7% | 14 | 67.9% | 54.4% | 57.4% | 52.9% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 71.4% | 50.6% | 56.4% | 52.7% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 3.4% | 26 | 59.6% | 62.8% | 55.4% | 56.1% | 1298 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 15 | 12.6% | 95 | 57.9% | 56.3% | 54.8% | 53.8% | 1324 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 54.6% | 53.5% | 1348 | — |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 2.5% | 21 | 59.5% | 49.4% | 54.5% | 50.5% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 5.9% | 45 | 61.1% | 55.1% | 54.3% | 51.8% | 1328 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 3.4% | 23 | 56.5% | 52.8% | 54.3% | 52.1% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.2% | 53.6% | 55.0% | 1272 | — |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 1.7% | 14 | 57.1% | 49.2% | 51.9% | 49.8% | 1308 | — |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 12 | 10.1% | 64 | 52.3% | 55.0% | 51.7% | 52.8% | 1318 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 1.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 53.3% | 51.4% | 49.4% | 1322 | — |
| 13 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 3.4% | 27 | 55.6% | 43.8% | 51.2% | 47.2% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 46.2% | 49.4% | 47.1% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Genbu | 6 | 5.0% | 36 | 48.6% | 52.0% | 48.7% | 50.3% | 1322 | — |
| 16 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 2.5% | 21 | 45.2% | 40.9% | 47.7% | 45.8% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Suzaku | 13 | 10.9% | 74 | 48.0% | 53.1% | 47.5% | 49.6% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 0.8% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.1% | 47.3% | 47.3% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 3.4% | 25 | 38.0% | 47.8% | 47.0% | 49.8% | 1279 | — |
| 20 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 5.0% | 34 | 51.5% | 47.4% | 46.9% | 44.9% | 1282 | — |
| 21 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 1.7% | 15 | 33.3% | 41.5% | 46.3% | 46.7% | 1309 | — |
| 22 | Fire Suited | 3 | 2.5% | 19 | 42.1% | 44.4% | 45.9% | 45.9% | 1265 | — |
| 23 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 4.2% | 30 | 43.3% | 51.9% | 45.9% | 48.5% | 1262 | — |
| 24 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 2.5% | 20 | 32.5% | 36.1% | 45.0% | 45.3% | 1277 | — |
| 25 | Water Fractal | 5 | 4.2% | 30 | 41.7% | 41.5% | 44.1% | 44.5% | 1257 | — |
| 26 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 3.4% | 23 | 34.8% | 46.6% | 43.7% | 48.1% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Beast | 1 | 0.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.6% | 43.7% | 48.5% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 3 | 2.5% | 19 | 36.8% | 38.1% | 42.9% | 43.8% | 1275 | — |
| 29 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.2% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Allies | 2 | 1.7% | 12 | 25.0% | 30.1% | 38.4% | 38.7% | 1261 | — |