← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 20 | 11.2% | 166 | 63.6% | 52.1% | 59.2% | 52.6% | 1470 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 3 | 1.7% | 31 | 67.7% | 60.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 2.2% | 39 | 59.0% | 48.5% | 56.7% | 52.7% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 57.1% | 55.8% | 55.7% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 3 | 1.7% | 29 | 51.7% | 49.7% | 53.8% | 52.6% | 1368 | — |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 1.1% | 13 | 57.7% | 61.9% | 53.7% | 53.9% | 1293 | — |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 1.1% | 13 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 53.6% | 52.2% | 1275 | — |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 0.6% | 12 | 66.7% | 47.4% | 52.8% | 48.7% | 1736 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Horse and Taxes | 5 | 2.8% | 46 | 56.5% | 51.6% | 52.8% | 51.2% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 6 | 3.4% | 47 | 61.7% | 64.3% | 52.6% | 55.3% | 1367 | — |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 57.8% | 52.4% | 55.1% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Fractal | 3 | 1.7% | 26 | 57.7% | 54.6% | 51.2% | 51.8% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 50.9% | 52.5% | 1318 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aetherwing | 4 | 2.2% | 37 | 54.1% | 71.5% | 50.7% | 58.8% | 1263 | — |
| 15 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 5 | 2.8% | 44 | 59.1% | 52.9% | 50.5% | 48.7% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 7 | 3.9% | 52 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 49.9% | 50.6% | 1316 | — |
| 17 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 2.2% | 34 | 51.5% | 51.3% | 49.9% | 49.5% | 1314 | — |
| 18 | Wind Shadowstrike | 24 | 13.4% | 162 | 48.1% | 48.8% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 1293 | — |
| 19 | Water Aetherwing | 11 | 6.1% | 101 | 52.0% | 62.0% | 49.1% | 54.2% | 1313 | — |
| 20 | Water Allies | 3 | 1.7% | 21 | 40.5% | 44.0% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 1274 | — |
| 21 | Wind Allies | 4 | 2.2% | 36 | 54.2% | 41.5% | 48.9% | 45.8% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Arcane | 3 | 1.7% | 22 | 38.6% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 49.9% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 7 | 3.9% | 48 | 49.0% | 53.5% | 48.1% | 50.3% | 1257 | — |
| 24 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 48.0% | 51.4% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 4.5% | 58 | 44.0% | 42.9% | 47.4% | 46.5% | 1280 | — |
| 26 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 52.5% | 47.4% | 50.0% | 1345 | — |
| 27 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 1.1% | 19 | 34.2% | 34.8% | 46.9% | 47.1% | 1267 | — |
| 28 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 0.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | 50.2% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 50.2% | 46.6% | 50.7% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Aggro | 7 | 3.9% | 46 | 48.9% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 1260 | — |
| 31 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.8% | 45.9% | 49.2% | 1289 | — |
| 32 | Wind Exia | 3 | 1.7% | 14 | 50.0% | 59.9% | 45.8% | 49.4% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 47.8% | 45.5% | 46.8% | 1270 | — |
| 34 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 54.7% | 44.8% | 50.3% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 37.5% | 44.2% | 43.5% | 45.5% | 1261 | — |
| 36 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 28.6% | 39.9% | 43.5% | 44.8% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Fire Exia | 5 | 2.8% | 31 | 38.7% | 39.4% | 42.3% | 42.8% | 1278 | — |
| 38 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 12.5% | 22.6% | 42.3% | 41.3% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 39 | Fire Suited | 5 | 2.8% | 32 | 35.9% | 43.5% | 42.0% | 46.7% | 1265 | — |
| 40 | Water Astra Ranger | 2 | 1.1% | 16 | 50.0% | 53.7% | 41.6% | 44.3% | 1330 | — |
| 41 | Water Crux Assassin | 2 | 1.1% | 10 | 25.0% | 28.5% | 41.0% | 39.1% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 42 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.6% | 7 | 14.3% | 24.1% | 40.8% | 39.6% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 43 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.6% | 3 | 16.7% | 31.7% | 40.7% | 39.1% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 44 | Slimes | 2 | 1.1% | 13 | 15.4% | 24.6% | 40.4% | 40.2% | 1080 | ↓ low |
| 45 | Norm Tera Silvie | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.3% | 40.3% | 45.7% | 1054 | ↓ low |
| 46 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 21.4% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 1107 | ↓ low |
| 47 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 26.8% | 39.6% | 35.9% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 48 | Fire Oblation | 5 | 2.8% | 39 | 33.3% | 32.9% | 39.1% | 37.6% | 1232 | ↓ low |