← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire AetherwingTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 43.8% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 45.6% | -2.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 41.7% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 63.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 78.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -14.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.7% | +3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burning Aethercharge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Take Cover | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Piercing Aetherfuel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Positioning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rocket Jump | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |