← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 45.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 38.2% | -5.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 65.5% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 67.2% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 36.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 66.3% | +8.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 35.1% | -8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.1% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |