← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire OblationTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
8
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
56
29-20-7
overall winrate
58.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1322
· range 905–1584
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 39.2% | -5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 28.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 64.9% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.1% | -13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.6% | +9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
