← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
19
(9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
128
60-55-13
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324
· median 1311
· range 1031–1624
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 9 | 1-7-1 | 16.7% | 26.9% | 33.9% | -7.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 12 | 7-3-2 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 60.5% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 47.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 52.3% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 54.4% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 35.8% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 61.8% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 10 | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 50.3% | +0.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 39.0% | -7.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.7% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.8% | +5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.3% | -8.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 75.4% | +14.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.6% | +7.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.1 |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Displace, Veiling Breeze, The Looking Glass. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Lost Providence, Seiryuu's Command.
Displace
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
The Looking Glass
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Banned
Unmake Duality
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lost Providence
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Seiryuu's Command
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Harness Lightning
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Byakko's Command
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.67 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Byakko's Command | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Reclaim | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soothing Disillusion | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Lapse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noble Dissolution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |