← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Wind AlliesTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
5
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
16-18-0
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1207
· range 1110–1444
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
